Alex Clarke
A fallacy is the use of invalid or otherwise faulty reasoning to conclude something. All humans are prone to erroneous thoughts and beliefs, and this is especially true in the context of recreational gambling.
As professional bettors, we’re not immune to cognitive biases either. If we’re not careful, these can cloud our judgment resulting in poor decision-making that damages our bankroll. Being aware of common gambling fallacies can help us calibrate our thinking and safeguard against making the wrong call.
We’ve reviewed a plethora of scientific literature that explores gambling fallacies to produce the most extensive list freely available on the internet. However, we’ve stripped complex scientific jargon and provided real-life sports betting examples that are relatable and easy to understand.
Here’s the list of the 20 most common gambling fallacies in four categories: cognitive distortion, superstition, attribution biases, probability biases, and control over luck.
1. The Hot or Cold Hand Fallacy
In the context of casino games, devices such as roulette wheels, slot machines, and dice for instance have been engineered to produce random outcomes. Assuming a fair (untampered-with) roulette wheel, the previous outcome wouldn’t have any influence on the future outcome.
The ball repeatedly landing on black after a few spins doesn’t increase or decrease the chance of it landing on black next time. The probability of the ball landing on black, red, or green remains the same in the next round as it was before.
Each round represents an independent event with no causal relationship to any future or previous event. Because casino games have built-in probabilities of outcome, the above is easy prove and demonstrate through a series of simulations.
Unlike spins on a roulette wheel, sports bets may be placed across both independent and dependent events. A series of bets on the same team are dependent events because the outcome of the previous event will have a causal relationship with the next. For example, an injury in the 1st leg of a knockout match could result in the player missing the 2nd leg. Extra time in a weekday cup match could impact players’ fitness during the upcoming weekend and so forth.
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